There Is Now A Crypto-Based Decentralized Prediction Market For Betting On The Outcome Of The Coronavirus

April 23, 2020 / by Crypto.IQ

Gnosis has launched a set of decentralized prediction markets for the Coronavirus called the Corona Information Markets where users can bet USD Coin (USDC) on the outcome of the Coronavirus. So far thousands of bets in USD Coin (USDC) have been placed in less than a day.

Specifically, users are betting on various different aspects involving the Coronavirus. This includes whether  hydroxychloroquine will be approved by the FDA for the Coronavirus by October 1, how many confirmed cases there will be in the United States on June 1, or if a vaccine will be approved before the end of the year. There are other markets for confirmed cases in specific states and countries.

Gnosis says they launched these markets to separate the signal from the noise in order to obtain useful data on the actual trajectory of the Coronavirus. Essentially, if people are placing a bet with actual money on a Coronavirus prediction market, then they probably heavily research the Coronavirus first.

Compare this to traditional polling where no money is involved, and people make predictions without doing much research since there is nothing to lose.

Therefore, the bets on the Corona Information Markets could be viewed as the equivalent of the consensus of news and scientific research on the Coronavirus, and thus could actually be useful.

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