Saving Private Bitcoin (BTC)

June 12, 2019 / by Bill Noble

Yesterday, a tweet circulated in the hedge fund community that had a deep impact on our current view of Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto in general.

The tweet contained a list showing estimated values of global markets and economic statistics in comparison to Bitcoin (BTC). Here is the list:

GDP: $80T
Gold: $7.5T
Funds: $18T
Stocks: $73T
Money: $80T
Wealth: $317T
Real Estate: $228T
Bitcoin: $0.14T

Several things struck from this list. For example, the value of global stocks is estimated by this person to be $73 Trillion. Compare that to Bitcoin at $0.14 Trillion Dollars.

This is an amazing statistic. In crypto, we tend to view Bitcoin (BTC) as the behemoth of the space. However, at a cosmic economic level, crypto — as important as it is — is only a spec of space dust. In military terms, Bitcoin (BTC) is an 18-year-old, 150-pound private who barely made it through boot camp. Bitcoin (BTC), like the private out of boot camp, can only get stronger with time as it discovers its true potential.

After pondering this analogy, we stopped fretting about whether the Bitcoin (BTC) consolidation will continue or whether the trend will resume. We stopped fretting about a dip to 6k or about price action that shakes out day traders. Philosophically, there no difference between $7,500 and $8,100. At either price, Bitcoin (BTC) is dirt cheap.

This thought process helped us have confidence in our recent chart read for the crypto space. If you have not checked out our recent chart pack on the space, we suggest doing so. Simply, we continue to believe that institutional traders who have delayed buying Bitcoin (BTC) may wind up missing out on the next leg higher.

Looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin (BTC) on BitMEX, our read is that a sharp move to $10,000 is still possible (Figure 1).

 class= Figure 1

Bottom Line: Time has come to save “Private” Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin (BTC) investors from scorn, doubt, and worry. We continue to believe crypto is a real macro asset class that is dramatically undervalued relative to legacy markets. These legacy markets are fraught with problems that are much bigger than the crypto market’s problems you read about in FUD articles.

As the tweet said, “perspective is everything.”

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