Bitcoin (BTC) Futures, S&P (SPX), VIX, Ethereum (ETH): What Foreshadows What

April 11, 2019 / by Bill Noble

We see four notable technical developments:

• The continuous front-month Bitcoin (BTC) futures contract hit our resistance point at $5,509 and then came off sharply (Figure 1).

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• The S&P 500 Index (SPX) may be topping after finally breaking a steep uptrend line (Figure 2)

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• VIX (Stock market fear index) is doing a subtle breakout above a Fib speed resistance line. This bodes for a move higher in VIX and a move down in SPX (Figure 3). Ethereum (ETH) may have done a false breakout from a consolidation pattern.

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• If Ethereum (ETH) cannot recover above $172, this may set up a bigger decline (Figure 4).

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When we put this all together, we think the decline in crypto is apart of a process that foretells of a decline in equities and other risk assets.  It is also possible that Bitcoin (BTC) futures are being sold to hedge crypto long positions, and miners may be accelerating sell programs.

Bottom Line: Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a consolidation phase. If SPX declines and VIX explodes, $4,550 and $4,880 could be the next levels to focus on for Bitcoin (BTC). If SPX does not fall, then $6,220 is possible for Bitcoin (BTC). Ethereum (ETH) needs to recover above $172.